DATE: Thursday 03/20/2008 at 10:28 AM (Eastern)
The price of the bench-mark 10-yr. Treasury has bounced around a bit this morning. It opened higher (rates lower) then paused before turning lower (rates higher).
Philadelphia's regional manufacturing index of -17.4 improved from January and February but remains well below the 0 positive growth level. Its been below that neutral mark since December as the survey showed a third month of declines in new orders and shipments. Prices paid rose while prices received declined.
The index of leading indicators fell 0.3% in February, its fifth consecutive decline as the 6-month growth has held below -1% for four months -- both recession warning signs the leading indicator is intended to detect.
Unemployment claims climbing. New claims for unemployment for the week ending March 15 rose to 378,000 from 356,000 the prior week. The four-week moving average rose to 365,250 from 359,250 the prior week and now is above the 362,000 level reached on Feb. 16 in this cycle. This is data for the week in which the March employment survey is conducted and probably will lead to expectations of another modest decline in payrolls.
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